Ermias Braki

Independent Narrative Risk Analyst

In 2023, Bud Light lost $400 million in revenue over six weeks. In 2024, Nike gained $6 billion in market cap under Elliott Hill after years of decline under John Donahoe. Both faced critical positioning decisions. One had the authority to make the claim. The other didn't. The difference wasn't execution. It was defensibility.

I identify the gap between what boards approve and what markets defend.

Leaders optimize for stakeholder consensus. They don't always assess whether customers will defend those decisions under pressure.

I find these contradictions before they become crises.

Active Analysis

Predictions In Progress

Super Bowl 2026 Narrative Risk Report Card

February 9, 2026
Analysis: Tracked 9 Super Bowl LX advertisers using Board Approval vs Market Defense scoring. Gap 0 (aligned): 3 brands. Gap 2-3 (severe risk): 6 brands.
Featured: GLP-1 Drug War (Novo vs Hims vs Ro), Meta/Oakley vs Ring privacy contrast, Vital Farms' $500k hedge that got 1 global mention
Predictions: Q4 2026 metrics and Feb 2027 outcomes for all 9 brands. Check back to validate.
In Progress
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Vital Farms Premium Positioning

February 4, 2026
Decision: 5 AM Super Bowl ad during scrutiny over premium justification ($7 to $8 vs $3 to $4 conventional)
Prediction: Q4 2026: Pricing power erodes OR explicit repositioning to ethics vs nutrition
Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings call
In Progress
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Pandora Commodity Strategy

February 5, 2026
Decision: New CEO swaps silver for platinum to escape commodity volatility
Prediction: Q4 2026: Margins stay compressed OR consumer resistance to platinum-plated OR demand decline continues
Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings (February 2027)
In Progress
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Target CEO Transition

February 1, 2026
Decision: 23 year insider promoted over external disruption
Prediction: Operational improvements without strategic repositioning. Sales remain flat through 2026.
Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings
In Progress
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PayPal CEO Appointment

February 4, 2026
Decision: Cost-cutter replaces growth CEO after 2.5 years
Prediction: Margins improve but revenue continues declining. Product problem disguised as execution issue.
Falsifiable: Q3 2027
In Progress
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Disney CEO Appointment

February 4, 2026
Decision: Parks chief promoted over content leader
Prediction: Parks continue performing on legacy IP. Content pipeline stays broken. Future attractions lack foundation.
Falsifiable: 2028
In Progress
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Jaguar Rebrand

November 2024 - 2029
Decision: Destroyed 102 years of heritage. Stopped all production. Ultra-luxury repositioning without brand equity.
Prediction: First-year sales <5k units vs 10k target. Strategic review late 2027. Brand dead or sold by 2029.
Falsifiable: 2026 sales, 2027 review, 2029 survival
In Progress
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UPS Amazon Exit

February 2, 2026
Decision: Cut 78k jobs, ended Amazon partnership (1B+ packages/year), $6.5B cost cuts
Prediction: Lost $2.2B contribution to fixed costs. Network utilization problems. Can't replace Amazon volume. Margins flat/down by Q4 2026.
Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings (Feb 2027)
In Progress
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Methodology

Approach

Every organization tells a story. They only face backlash when that story can't be defended.

Proximity to problems blinds leadership. They optimize for stakeholder approval instead of asking whether customers will believe what they're promising.

I identify these gaps before they surface as crises, when adjustment is still possible without reputational or operational fallout.

Available globally for narrative risk assessment.