Analysis: Tracked 9 Super Bowl LX advertisers using Board Approval vs Market Defense scoring framework. Gap 0 (aligned): 3 brands. Gap 2-3 (severe risk): 6 brands.

Featured Analyses:
• GLP-1 Drug War: Novo/Wegovy ran $30M celebrity ad avoiding pricing entirely while Hims launched $49 pill Feb 5, Novo threatened lawsuit, FDA intervened Feb 7, Hims backed down day before Super Bowl. Ro used clinical data approach.
• Privacy Contrast: Meta/Oakley "Athletic Intelligence" ad avoided privacy concerns (customer base doesn't care). Ring "lost dog finder" landed as surveillance state (customer base cares deeply).
• Vital Farms: $500k 5am hedge strategy got 1 global social mention.

Predictions: Q4 2026 metrics (pricing power, market share, comps) and Feb 2027 outcomes (leadership changes, repositions, acquisitions) for all 9 brands.

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings, Feb 2027 strategic changes

Decision: New CEO (1 month in role) swaps silver for platinum to escape commodity volatility. Silver doubled in 2025. Stock down 63%. Margins compressing from 23.9% to 21-22%. US consumer sentiment at "60-year lows."

Problem: Brand built on commodity value ($70 for quality silver), not emotional value. Kay Jewelers survives price volatility because customers buy sentiment. Pandora doesn't because customers were always buying silver content.

Prediction: By Q4 2026, either (1) margins stay compressed despite metal swap, (2) consumer resistance to platinum-plated versus sterling silver heritage, or (3) demand continues declining because brand equity gap wasn't addressed.

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings (February 2027)

Decision: 5 AM Super Bowl ad while customers question premium justification. Michigan State study found 23.5% linoleic acid (higher than canola oil). Market asks: what justifies $7 to $8/dozen vs $3 to $4 conventional?

Prediction: By Q4 2026, either (1) pricing power erodes as margins compress, or (2) explicit repositioning from nutritional superiority to ethical-only positioning.

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings call (early 2027)

Decision: Cost-cutter Enrique Lores replaces growth CEO after 2.5 years.

Prediction: Margins improve but revenue continues declining. Product problem disguised as execution issue.

Falsifiable: Q3 2027

Decision: Parks chief Josh D'Amaro promoted over content leader Dana Walden.

Prediction: Parks continue performing on legacy IP. Content pipeline stays broken. Future attractions lack foundation.

Falsifiable: 2028

Decision: Cut 78,000 jobs, ended Amazon partnership (1B+ packages/year), $6.5B cost cuts.

Prediction: Lost $2.2B contribution to fixed costs. Network utilization problems. Can't replace Amazon volume. Margins flat/down by Q4 2026.

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings (February 2027)

Decision: 23 year insider Michael Fiddelke promoted over external disruption.

Prediction: Operational improvements without strategic repositioning. Sales remain flat through 2026.

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 earnings (February 2027)

Analysis: $8B revenue growth destroyed premium positioning by expanding from yoga studios to mass market.

Status: Monitoring brand equity erosion and pricing power sustainability.

Decision: Bringing back "Most Interesting Man" at age 87 after killing campaign 10 years ago.

Prediction: Answer by end of 2026: Resurrection or reminder they killed it?

Falsifiable: Q4 2026 sales data

Decision: Destroyed 102 years of heritage. Stopped all production. Ultra-luxury repositioning without brand equity.

Prediction: First-year sales <5k units vs 10k target. Strategic review late 2027. Brand dead or sold by 2029.

Falsifiable: 2026 sales, 2027 strategic review, 2029 brand survival

Analysis: Strategic narrative coherence drives market confidence. $6B market cap gain under Elliott Hill. Authority to reclaim positioning.

Outcome: Validated - Nike demonstrated how maintaining narrative authority through leadership transition drives market performance.

Analysis: $400M revenue collapse from weak narrative foundations. Small contradictions compound into public failure when positioning lacks defense.

Outcome: Validated - Demonstrated how narrative contradictions create catastrophic brand failure when foundation can't be defended.

Analysis: Identity concentration risk after founder departure. Meaning remained tied to founder, could not be sustained by institution.

Status: Ongoing - Monitoring whether institutional narrative can replace founder authority.